Threshold Rise
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One of you climate geniuses out there do work, get points?
Climate modelers consider it likely that the Greenland ice sheet will begin melting uncontrollably if global surface temperatures rise by a total of 2 degrees Celcius relative to preindustrial temperatures. How much warming from future greenhouse gas emissions would it take to reach this threshold (this is in addition to the temperature rise that we've already "committed to" and the temperarature rise we've observed)? (Assume that no significant temperature changes occurred before 1880 and answer to the nearest tenth of a degree Celcius)
The accepted climate sensitivity for a doubling of CO2 from pre-industrial levels is about 3˚C.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-sensitivity-advanced.htm
In terms of radiative forcing though per doubling of CO2, we can calculate that with the below equation:
S = ∆F / ∆T = 5.35ln(C/C_o) / ∆T = 5.35ln2 / 3 = 1.24 W/m^2
http://folk.uio.no/gunnarmy/paper/myhre_grl98.pdf
Switch this equation around now to solve for the warming we can expect to experience from current CO2 levels:
∆T = ∆F / S = 5.35ln(C/C_o) / S
Current CO2 concentration is about 389ppmv.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/#global
Pre-industrial levels are commonly valued at 280ppmv. So:
∆T = 5.35ln(389 / 280) / 1.24 = 1.42˚C
This means that we need enough carbon dioxide to equal 0.58˚C more warming to get to the 2˚C rise the question asks for.
It should be reiterated though, so there's no confusion, that this temperature value does NOT reflect what the current temperatures still have to raise by. There is a lag in the response time between CO2 and global temperatures, and thus we have not seen all of the warming from current levels yet.
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/308/5727/1431


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